Survivor Experts Blog

Survivor Pro: Favoring the home team

The MLS season is only two weeks old, but there is a bit of a trend developing. Have you noticed it yet?

It has nothing to do with the Kansas City Wizards' fast start, Cuauhtemoc Blanco's brilliance or Jon Busch's return to prominence between the posts. Take one look at the schedule so far this season and it will instantly jump out at you:

The home team has not lost.

Now, while there have been three ties in 13 games -- which has resulted in a loss for some Survivor Pro players -- the home team has won 10 games so far this season.

Ten games!

At this pace, the home team would be expected to win about 323 of 420 total MLS regular season matches, or 77 percent of the time. Yes, we're letting our math geek side show a bit too much with these calculations, but sometimes these numbers are worth pointing out -- especially if you're trying to win an XBox 360.

Skeptics will likely point out that it is much too early to determine how a single team, much less the entire league, is going to trend for the rest of the season. Skeptics may also say that home teams are supposed to win their first home game of the season (Kansas City is the only team to play more than one home match), a time when expectations are sky high and teams are playing before exuberant home crowds.

While those would be fair points, there's also one other rule of thumb to consider -- never bet against a hot hand. If the home teams are winning, you've got to stick with that trend until proven otherwise.

Picking the hot hand can be about as pleasant as this uncomfortable moment when the streak runs long and you've just got that feeling that's got to end at some point soon. Nobody wants to be the violinist on the Titanic and stay with ship until it sinks. But you've at least got to ride it out. You don't want to go against the trend and have your streak discontinued because you went with your gut and bucked the trend out of fear of losing.

With that said, let's take a look at this weekend's Best Bets and Top Choice.

Chicago Fire at San Jose Earthquakes (4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday): Consider this pick a Dark Horse. The Fire played real well at home last week against New England, they have a goalkeeper in Busch who looks like he's returned to his form from four years ago when he was at his best with the Columbus Crew and they have a player in Blanco who could wind up holding the MVP trophy at the end of the season. Despite all of these facts, there are two reasons why we'd go against them this week: the Quakes are the home team (did you not just read the previous 10 paragraphs?) and they are playing their first home game of the season. Oh, yeah ... and it's the first match in San Jose since the original Earthquakes moved out three years ago. This home crowd will be rockin'. Best Bet: San Jose

Houston Dynamo at Kansas City Wizards (8 p.m. ET, Saturday): The match will mark Kansas City's fourth straight home game to open the season and second within a four-day span. It's tough to pick a team that plays twice in a week, but seeing as Houston is also playing twice within four days and is coping with an injured goalkeeper and starting defender, this game seems like a pretty solid pick. The only way that the Wizards lose this one is significant others/family members are sick of having the players around the house and are making their lives miserable until they hit the road. Doubt it. Best Bet: Kansas City

Toronto FC at Los Angeles Galaxy (3 p.m. ET, Sunday): David Beckham scored and had an assist last week. Landon Donovan scored and had an assist last week. The Galaxy could have won 4-0 last week had Alan Gordon made a proper run to goal or learned how to finish. On the other hand, TFC has scored a total of one goal in two games and the team has yet to play at home this season. Toronto is desperate for a win, but its not going to get it this week. Top Choice: Los Angeles

Best of luck this week with your Survivor Pro picks. Be sure to check back next week for our Best Bets and Top Choice.

Comments

 

Survivor Experts Blog said:

We've decided that it would be best not to dwell on last week's results and just look ahead to this week's

April 16, 2008 12:38 PM
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