Survivor Experts Blog

Survivor Pro: Be aware of player movement

2008-06-04T19:48:00Z

"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't stop and look around once in a while, you could miss it." -- Ferris Bueller

This time of year, there are four major areas where a Survivor Pro players needs to focus their attention in order to make certain what players are on a given team's roster: discipline, injuries, international matches and transfers.

Let's look at the impact of each area in reverse order, starting with transfers. With the international window opening soon, there are going to be plenty of rumors swirling around about international players joining MLS teams and current MLS players leaving the league to play abroad. Some of these rumors are going to be just that -- rumors. But others, such as Wednesday's report about Jozy Altidore being sold to Villareal of La Liga, have more validity. Rumors of Alitdore's impending departure from the New York Red Bulls have been swirling since the offseason and there's no doubt that the teen-aged striker is one of the brightest talents to hit the U.S. international scene in a while.

While this move will likely have an adverse affect on New York's attack, there is a possibility that by moving Altidore another player on the team will now have a chance to shine. Maybe veterans Mike Magee or John Wolyniec step into the spotlight. Or maybe Colombian Oscar Echeverry pairs with countryman Juan Pablo Angel to form a dynamic duo. Whatever happens, as a Survivor Pro player, don't bank on it until you see some results first. Angel may put this team on his back like he did for stretches last season, but don't count on it with the way he's had to battle some nagging injuries in the early going this season. For now, stay away from the Red Bulls.

Now, on the other hand, there are rumors that former U.S. international striker Brian McBride is ready to come back to MLS after a solid stint with Fulham of the English Premier League. There's even the rumor that he would join the Chicago Fire. McBride playing target man for Cuauhtemoc Blanco? Could happen. Could also be too good to be true for the Section 8ers. One thing is for certain: McBride is on the lookout for a team. If he lands back in MLS, it will be a boon for whichever team is lucky enough to get him. We're not talking about bringing in Claudio Reyna here. McBride is the real deal and has been for some time. If the Fire managed to put together a deal to get him, Chicago instantly becomes a favorite to win MLS Cup and a favorite each week in Survivor Pro.

The international matches are going to be a bit trickier to follow in that you need to know how long a player is going to be in camp for their respective national teams and when they are likely to be released in order to return to their respective MLS clubs. Take for example USA's recent international matches against England and Spain. While coach Bob Bradley has relied on a heavy dose of international talent to comprise this squad, he has called in the following MLS players: Landon Donovan (LA), Brad Guzan (Chivas USA), Ricardo Clark (Houston), Maurice Edu (Toronto), Pablo Mastroeni (Colorado) and Frankie Hejduk (Columbus).

While most of those players were able to return to their respective clubs to play last weekend and will be able to play in this weekend's matches, there's going to be plenty of matches missed with the Olympics and World Cup qualifying matches waiting to start in the next couple of weeks. If you pick a team like the Los Angeles Galaxy during a week when both Landon Donovan and David Beckham (yes, he still expects to be a "lion" for England) are out, then you could see your Survivor Pro streak come to an end pretty quickly.

The double-whammy is when one of those international players gets injured. Donovan is the latest example after developing a tight groin. Not only is he not playing in U.S. matches, but he'll also likely be out of the lineup for the Galaxy this week. Injuries are going to strike at any time. You've just got to keep an eye on the weekly MLS report and hope that the team that you've picked has a strong bench.

The last element to be aware of that might take a key player out of a match is discipline. Guys who play hard have already started accumulating points for their fouls or even been carded. It's better to know now if these guys are going to be available for your Survivor Pro-picked team or else you could wind up with your team looking at the wrong end of a result.

League life is moving pretty fast this time of year. If you don't stop to check the latest news on a given team, you might just miss out on a win in Survivor Pro.

With that said, let's look at our Top Choice and Best Bet for this week's matches.

D.C. United at Chicago Fire (8:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, FOX Soccer Channel): We've got one team that exploded for four second-half goals last weekend against the Red Bulls and another that had one win and one draw in six matches in May. D.C. United hosts Houston Dynamo Wednesday and then gets the pleasure of traveling to Bridgeview, Ill., to take on the Fire, who already have a league-high six wins this season. A rested Blanco and Co. have a clear advantage over the Black-and-Red. Top Choice: Chicago Fire

Toronto FC at Houston Dynamo (8:30 p.m. ET, Sunday): Give a team some home games and watch their confidence grow. At least that's what appears to have happened in Toronto. TFC started the season with three road games and went 1-2-0. Since then, they've had six home games and in that span went 4-0-2, tied for the league's top mark at home. While this match is being played on the road, TFC should have Edu back from international duty and Houston will have played its second match within four games. Best Bet: Toronto FC

Survivor Pro: FCD searching everywhere for spark

2008-05-22T01:11:00Z

Apologies for the delay in posting this week's blog, but we were just trying to gather our shock from Steve Morrow's sacking with FC Dallas.

We could maybe understand if it had been Tommy Soehn in D.C. given how underwhelming that team has performed thus far. Preki would have been another option given the preseason expectations for Chivas USA, but that would have been a drastic measure. But a guy whose team is three points out of first place through the first month and a half of the season? It doesn't make sense.

Soccernet's Steve Davis has a good take on a situation that reeks of desperation on the part of FCD General Manager Michael Hitchcock. Sure, the team was throttled by Edson Buddle's Galaxy (any other week that team belongs to Landon and Becks, but Buddle gets the nod for his hattrick) last week at Pizza Hut Park. But removing a coach doesn't necessarily translate into wins.

Marco Ferruzzi moves into the hot seat for the time being, becoming the Hoops interim head coach. We could also understand if Morrow was fired because Hitchcock had another star coach waiting in the wings. Ferruzzi ... yeah, you probably had to look up his bio too. The guy played a couple of games for the Tampa Bay Mutiny around the time the league was first born (read: plenty of guys became professionals who might never have sniffed the inside of a locker room otherwise) and he has been an assistant coach for FC Dallas since 2004.

Marco, we wish nothing but the best for you, but if you're being measured by the same unrealistic standards that Morrow was held to during his brief tenure, then your time at the helm could be real short. Then again, that's why you've got the "interim" tag.

So, where does this leave FC Dallas as they prepare to host Real Salt Lake on Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET)? Dallas's offense has been ineffective over the last four games (0-3-1), scoring only twice. One of those losses came at the hands of RSL in Salt Lake City two weeks ago. Seeing as RSL has only scored five goals in its last five league matches, don't expect this one to be a barn-burner.

Do the player's feel responsible for getting their coach fired? Are they looking forward to playing under Ferruzzi (however long that's going to last -- over/under is four games)? Will this move produce the spark that Hitchcock envisioned?

Probably not. But for one week, and given that the opponent is RSL, FC Dallas has a got shot of putting up a W. The team called a players only meeting this week and while those can be cliched in sports, they do have the tendancy to work immediately. Just don't expect that to last. It's not like Ferruzzi is coming in with all new tactics and a lineup that resembles Manchester United (Cristiano Ronaldo, you're a lucky man). Top Choice: FC Dallas

As mentioned earlier, D.C. United has been miserable through the early going this season. Seriously, what happened to this team? One moment they are plucking obscure players from around the world and getting them to perform at high levels as a team (Troy Perkins, Bobby Boswell, Clyde Simms and Freddy Adu come to mind -- yes, the inclusion of the last name is a joke). The next moment, they've revamped nearly their entire lineup and are getting little help in goal from offseason acquisition Zach Wells.

This week, D.C. plays a home-and-home series with unlikely Eastern Conference rivals Toronto FC. The Men from BMO Field came away with a 1-0 win in Canada on Wednesday night with the second leg looming on Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET) at RFK Stadium. So long as reigning league MVP Luciano Emilio remains on the side of a milk carton (1 goal in 8 games), D.C. United is going to have to find scoring from elsewhere. Until somebody on that team steps up, we're going to pick against them in every match. Best Bet: Toronto FC

Good luck and start streaking!

Survivor Pro: Revs' core tough to top

2008-05-14T13:03:00Z

The New England Revolution have a target on their respective backs. The Buffalo Bills of MLS have been Eastern Conference Champions for the last three consecutive years, but have been unable to get over the hump to win the MLS Cup.

What Steve Nicol and Paul Mariner have been able to do in New England is no small feat. Do you know the last time that the Revolution were not in the Eastern Conference Finals? It was 2001. At that time, MLS was split into three divisions (Eastern, Central and Western), FC Dallas (Dallas Burn) and the New York Red Bulls (MetroStars) had different names, and the Tampa Bay Mutiny, Miami Fusion and first incarnation of the San Jose Earthquakes existed.

People have been calling for the end of the Revolution with each agonizing Cup defeat, particularly their '06 loss to Houston on penalty kicks. Somehow, though, they have remained strong and been able to make their run at the right time.

There are three players who have been with the Revs since that 2002 season that started their run of Eastern Conference Finals appearances, while a fourth and fifth have been main components since 2003 and 2004, respectively.

Jay Heaps, acquired from the now-defunct Miami Fusion during the 2001 season, has helped anchor an always-solid defensive front for New England. Steve Ralston, acquired from the Tampa Bay Mutiny dispersal draft, is the engine that drives the Revs offense from his midfield slot. In '02, Ralston had a career-high 19 assists, 11 of which came as a result of goals scored by another new member of the Revolution, Taylor Twellman. The New England attacker was signed before the '02 season after a stint in Europe and burst onto the MLS scene with a stunning 23 goals in his first season. Twellman has been a member of the Revolution ever since.

The next piece to the Revs puzzle is Grenadian Shalrie Joseph. The 6-foot-3 holding midfielder has been a mainstay for New England since his arrival in '03. Joseph plays a rugged game that challenges all opponents who dare to enter his area.

And the final member of this Fab Five who have held the Revs together over the last few years is goalkeeper Matt Reis. He is a perennial Best XI and Goalkeeper of the Year candidate, and one could argue that he should have seen more playing time with the U.S. national team (if goalkeeping had not been the U.S. team's strength, Reis likely would have many more caps).

So what does this have to do with Survivor Pro, you ask? Well, for the first time this young season, Twellman, Ralston, Heaps, Reis and Joseph were on the field at the same time during Sunday's 2-1 victory against Chivas USA. Twellman scored off a feed from Ralston in the second half, Reis picked up the win and Heaps and Joseph held the defense together.

That was Twellman's first game of the season after sitting out the first seven games while recovering from knee surgery. The injury bug has also effected Ralston, who has missed five games thus far.

Assuming that Twellman's ankle is not falling off, as he said it felt like it was after getting injured later in Sunday's game against Chivas, all five players will be back on the field again Saturday (7:30 p.m. ET, HDNet) against the expansion San Jose Earthquakes at Gillette Stadium.

While Frank Yallop's Quakes are committed to team defense, the offense has scored a puny four goals in six games. Reis, Heaps and Joseph have a good chance at holding this team off the board, while the New England attack revs up (pun intended) with Ralston and Twellman leading the charge (though you may want to wait until Thursday night to make your Survivor Pro pick final to see if Twellman's injury status has changed). Top Choice: New England

For our other pick this week, it's tempting to go with Colorado at home against Real Salt Lake, but we'd prefer to avoid rivalry games (yes, the Rocky Mountain Cup is considered a rivalry). Also, we can't pick the Rapids on principal based upon Bouna Coundoul's complete whiff that led to Brian Ching's first goal of the season in Houston's 2-1 win over Colorado last week. Seriously Bouna, that was embarassing. Only Kevin Hartman has looked worse at trying to play the ball with his feet.

This pick may scare some of you, but on the surface, it looks like a sure thing to us. Dynamo finally got into the win column last week and got goals from Ching and Dwayne De Rosario. To some, it looks like the two-time defending MLS Cup champs may have found a way to turn their season around. To us, it looks like Houston just got plain lucky with Bouna's miscue and a questionable hand-ball violation in the box that led to De Ro's converted PK for the game-winner in the waning moments of the match. This week, Dynamo will be tested by one of the top Eastern Conference teams this season as they travel to Bridgeview, Ill., to take on the Chicago Fire (8:30 p.m. ET). Coming off three-straight wins, the Fire will be in search of their first home win for May. Chris Rolfe, Chad Barrett and Cuauhtemoc Blanco will shread Houston's defense in this match-up. Best Bet: Chicago

Good luck this week. Be selective and build up that streak. Remember, the Grand Prize is an XBox 360!

Survivor Pro: Rapids find balance

2008-05-06T10:33:00Z

Here's a challenge for you: Without looking, name the top goal-scorer for the Western Conference leading Colorado Rapids (3-3-0), a team that has scored 10 times in six games.

Cue the Jeopardy music.

A logical guess would be midfielder Christian Gomez, a former league MVP whom the Rapids acquired in the offseason from D.C. United. And that answer would be correct.

Another logical guess would be Herculez Gomez, Colorado's second-leading scorer last season. That, too, would be a correct answer.

We also would have accepted Terry Cooke, Colin Clark, Jose Burciaga Jr., Omar Cummings, John DiRaimondo, Facundo Erpen, Nick LaBrocca and Tom McManus. Now, that's you call a balanced attack. What might be even more surprising to some is that Fernando Clavijo's men have managed to get through the first month of the season without Jovan Kirovski (Colorado's leading scorer in '07 with six goals) and target man Conor Casey, who have both yet to play a minute this season due to injury.

There has been a different hero from nearly a different position every night. Of that group of 10 players who have scored for the Rapids, only two are forwards (McManus and Cummings). While Burciaga Jr. tends to play more like a midfielder at times, he and Erpen are defenders who have each come up with a single tally this season. Every player in this group was a starter in the match in which he scored.

Now, there might be something to be said when a team does not have a player with more than one goal through six games. With the exception of the San Jose Earthquakes (and they do not count as they have mustered a measly two goals thus far in their expansion season), every other team in the league has at least one player with two or more goals. But seeing as Colorado has managed to sustain an offense without two guys who have the potential to put the ball in the back of the net on a semi-regular basis (Casey hasn't shown much since arriving on the MLS stage last year after spending the first part of his professional career abroad) makes their early-season record look all that more impressive.

On Saturday (8:30 p.m. ET, Fox Soccer Channel), the Rapids and their spread offense meet the Dynamo in Houston. Shockingly, Houston is the worst team in MLS. The Dynamo have yet to win a match this season (0-2-4) and have shown less punch then their minority owner. U.S. international Brian Ching and Canadian international Dwayne De Rosario have scored a grand total of ZERO goals this season. It's not for a lack of trying either, as De Ro has fired a team-high 23 shots, including nine on goal. Geoff Cameron, Franco Caraccio (2) and Brad Davis have scored all of Houston's four goals this season.

So long as Colorado continues to strike a balance on offense and gets continued strong play from goalkeeper Bouna Coundoul, the Rapids should avoid becoming Houston's first victim this season. Top Choice: Colorado

While it is tempting to lean on the Los Angeles Galaxy for this week's Best Bet in their match at The Home Depot Center against the New York Red Bulls, there's something about the combination of New York's early-season defense and L.A.'s inability to have anyone outside of David Beckham or Landon Donovan generate offense that scares us. Instead, there's an easier decision to make (at least on paper).

Also on Saturday (10 p.m ET), the Columbus Crew visit the San Jose Earthquakes at Buck Shaw Stadium. By all accounts, last week's opener at Buck Shaw was a success with the Quakes garnering a scoreless draw with FC Dallas. This week, they won't have such luck against a surprisingly solid Crew team that is currently the best in MLS (5-1-0). Alejandro Moreno, who had his best MLS season in San Jose in 2005 with eight goals and four assists in 31 games, has had a hot start for the Crew, scoring four goals this season. Robbie Rogers has also found the back of the net three times for Sigi Schmid's charges on a team-high 11 shots. While San Jose continues to boast a strong defense anchored by goalkeeper Joe Cannon, the Quakes' attack leaves much to be desired. Best Bet: Columbus

Survivor Pro: Steady East, Wild West

2008-04-29T12:36:00Z

We wanted to take this week to expand upon Landon Donovan's incredible first month of the season (one of the best in recent memory by MLS standards) and how he has lifted our fantasy team to the top of its league, but that's the other guy's column. Our job in helping you find your way through Survivor Pro is much more difficult.

The first-month roller coaster MLS season has passed and what have we learned? Well ... not much other than the fact that once again, the Eastern Conference teams appear to be stronger than their Western Conference counterparts.

The last place team in the East, D.C. United, is 2-3-0 with a total of 6 points and is coming off of a convincing 4-1 win against Real Salt Lake at RFK Stadium. The third place team in the West, Colorado, is also 2-3-0 with a total of six points and is coming off a 2-1 loss in Chicago.

Two strong playoff contenders from last season have struggled from the start in the West (Chivas USA and two-time MLS Cup champion Houston Dynamo), while the Kansas City Wizards and Toronto FC already have three wins each -- one more than any team in the Western Conference. Oh yeah, and the Columbus Crew are the best team in the league with a 4-1-0 mark.

You might have a better chance of knowing if Posh Spice is pregnant (which she is, according to the British tabloids, because she did not drink at her own birthday party last week. We suggest that they name him/her Hollywood Beckham.) than you would of knowing who has a good chance of winning from week to week in MLS at this point in the season.

Seeing the way the league has trended thus far, it might be wise to look for interconference match-ups and pick the Eastern Conference team, especially if the East team is at home. Of course, this week there is only one interconference match-up (which we'll get to in a second), while the other six matches are all in-conference affairs. What to do if that's the case? Well, we're going to flip a coin, but you're free to do what you like. Either way, you should try to stick with the team that's been hot and a team that's playing at home. For this week, two teams (Toronto and Columbus) would fit that description -- but we're not ready to get out on that limb yet and make either team our Best Bet or Top Choice for the week.

That said, here's who we like for this week's picks:

Chicago Fire at New England Revolution (7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday) -- Both teams are coming off solid road wins against Western Conference opponents (Chicago beat Colorado and New England beat FC Dallas), but the tide should turn in favor to the Revolution for this match. These two teams did meet earlier this season and the Fire spanked the Revs 4-0 at Bridgeview. But there's a couple of reasons why we discount that result: 1. The game was played in a tsunami and we all know how unpredictable soccer can be when played in wet conditions. 2. It was the Fire's home opener. New England is finally starting to get healthy after an early-season bout with injuries. Starting defender Chris Albright and veteran midfielder Steve Ralston should be available for Steve Nicol's charges. Jeff Larentowicz and Sainey Nyassi may also be ack for the Revs. Even if only two of those four players are back, look for the Revs to exact some revenge on Chicago. Best Bet: New England

D.C. United at Colorado Rapids (3 p.m. ET, Sunday) -- Maybe we're putting too much stock in a single result, but D.C.'s win last week against RSL was pretty convincing. Jaime Moreno found his scoring touch and the rest of the team finally seemed to jel. Colorado has lost two consecutive matches and the offense has sputtered since scoring four goals in their season opener against the Los Angeles Galaxy. We're all over the Eastern Conference right now, so let's ride that one out. Top Choice: D.C. United

Best of luck and don't forget what it is that you're playing for. Also, if you want to humor yourself, type "Posh Spice" into Google News search. You'll not only learn that she's pregnant, but that she also has seen her fashion line tank; Tom Cruise is concerned with her influence over Katie Holmes; motherhood has helped heal the rift between Posh and Ginger Spice; and she avoids Botox injections for her own wrinkle-reducing treatment. Will wonders never cease?

Survivor Pro: Be selective

2008-04-22T12:59:00Z

We hate to break this to you, but it's time that someone said something: You're not as smart as you think you are. Come to think of it, neither are we.

What are we talking about? Picking winners from MLS games, of course!

In case you have not heard, the stakes have been raised for all of you playing Survivor Pro. Just try not to go all Gordon Gecko and overstep on some of your picks in an effort
to reach one of the prize levels.

Here's the skinny on the prize levels:

Streaks: Prizes
5-game: Survivor Pro T-shirt
10-game: FIFA 08 game
15-game: PSP System
20-game: XBox 360

In order to succeed at this game you should consider being selective with your picks. Remember the '80s game show "Press Your Luck"? Well, in this case, the Whammy is a loss or a tie and so far there have been quite a few Whammies out there.

Of course, we're not immune to this feeling of "just one more right selection and I'm that much further ahead of the pack." Just last week we went a bit out on a limb and picked Columbus over D.C. United at RFK Stadium and Toronto FC over Real Salt Lake in TFC's home opener. Both picks won ... but what did we do? We pressed our luck by taking Colorado at home against a winless expansion team -- only to see the expansion team walk away with a victory.

You've got to pick your spots. There's going to be some weeks when you can make 3 or 4 selections with confidence. And then there are other weeks where you're going to have a difficult time in just picking one team to win.

This upcoming week is filled with a number of even match-ups (at least on paper):

- On Sunday, two teams with no offense, but solid defense play at Giants Stadium (San Jose vs. New York).

- On Saturday, the two-time defending champions, playing without one of their stallwart defenders, heads to Columbus in search of their first win on the season against a team that has rushed out to a 3-1-0 mark (Houston vs. Columbus).

- RSL may not have much in the way of scorers, but D.C. United's revamped lineup hasn't exactly been potent in the season's early going.

- L.A. Galaxy vs. Chivas USA meet in the first Honda Super Clasico of the year.

Tough week, right? Well, that's why we're going to limit our selections this week to one Best Bet and one Top Choice.

New England Revolution at FC Dallas (8:30 p.m. ET, Thursday): The Revs, playing with 10 men for a good portion of the match, are coming off a hard-fought draw against the New York Red Bulls. The team has traded veteran Joe Franchino (though he appeared to be phased out of coach Steve Nicol's rotation) to L.A. and starting forward Mauricio Castro will not play due to his red card the previous week. Meanwhile, FC Dallas has strung together two consecutive wins over Chivas USA and New York, and remains the only unbeaten team in MLS (2-0-2). Teamwork is guiding the Hoops thus far and look for it to continue against a disjointed Revolution squad. Best Bet: FC Dallas

Kansas City Wizards at Toronto FC (3:30 p.m. ET, Saturday): Coaches in any sport always try to prepare their team to avoid "the let-down" following a big win. There's a tendancy for players to dwell on their accomplishments from the previous game vs. respecting their current opponents. Laurent Robert gave TFC a big win in their home opener last week against RSL. Don't expect the same result this week against a Wizards club that has played like one of the best in the league. Top Choice: Kansas City

Best of luck building up those win streaks.

Survivor Pro: Consistently consistent

2008-04-16T18:02:00Z

We've decided that it would be best not to dwell on last week's results and just look ahead to this week's upcoming matches. We'd like to blame the unusual weekend weather -- 44 degrees in Kansas City on Saturday, 89 degrees in Carson, Calif. on Sunday -- but there's no excuses. We can't even blame it on the rain (yeah, yeah).

There are seven games on this week's slate (one on Thursday, four on Saturday and two on Sunday) and there's not an easy pick in the bunch. At this point in the season, teams are starting to find out who they are, how their teammates play, what are their strengths and what they need to try and do to correct weaknesses.

As a Survivor Pro player, you're looking for the team that's putting together the most consistent line-up each week. You can ill afford to pick a team whose coach is still feeling out his players and repeatedly expirementing with various line-up and substitution combinations. If you're a coach, this is the time of year that you've got to experiment because if you're trying new things in September and October it means that your season is prematurely over.

Of course, you can never account for injuries. You've just got to hope for the best from the guy who comes off the bench. Take Houston goalkeeper Tony Caig, for example. All-Star 'keeper Pat Onstad gets hurt early in the April 6 match against FC Dallas. While Caig did surrender three goals after entering that match, he followed up that performance with the first clean sheet of his MLS career last week against Kansas City.

It looks like Caig is going to be back in goal this weekend, but that match-up against the Galaxy (a maddeningly inconsistent team) is not one that we want to touch. This week, we looked for the most stable, productive lineup for our Best Bets and Top Choice.

Columbus Crew at D.C. United (8 p.m. ET, Thursday): This match is tougher to pick than one might think at first glance. RFK Stadium is still a tough place to play and D.C. has won its only match at home this season. Overall, though, United is 1-2 on the season and struggling to find consistency. The team has allowed seven goals this season and has yet to find the right combination on offense, scoring four goals in three games. Meanwhile, the Crew earned a solid win against Chivas USA at home last weekend and have a steady goalkeeper in Will Hesmer. If you've watched these two teams play, it should be no surprise that Columbus is also ahead of D.C. in the standings. Go against your gut on this one. Best Bet: Columbus

Real Salt Lake at Toronto FC (12:30 p.m. ET, Saturday): RSL is 1-1-1 on the season. TFC is 1-2-0. RSL stunned D.C. last week in a 4-0 win. Toronto pulled off an equally surprising 3-2 victory in L.A. Tough choice, right? A sold-out crowd at BMO Field for TFC's home opener tips the scales. Not even a plane scare is going to stop the Reds. Best Bet: Toronto

San Jose Earthquakes at Colorado Rapids (9:30 p.m. ET, Saturday): San Jose is winless on the season, while Colorado (2-1-0) is atop the Western Conference. The Quakes have yet to score this season, but its evident that their defense could rank as one of the best in the league. The Rapids, thus far, have scored a league-high seven times, so this match appears to pit strength against strength. But until the Quakes actually score, much less win, we have to pick against them. Top Choice: Colorado

Best of luck this week with your Survivor Pro picks. Be sure to check back on Sunday for our Best Bets and Top Choice.

Survivor Pro: Favoring the home team

2008-04-09T00:24:00Z

The MLS season is only two weeks old, but there is a bit of a trend developing. Have you noticed it yet?

It has nothing to do with the Kansas City Wizards' fast start, Cuauhtemoc Blanco's brilliance or Jon Busch's return to prominence between the posts. Take one look at the schedule so far this season and it will instantly jump out at you:

The home team has not lost.

Now, while there have been three ties in 13 games -- which has resulted in a loss for some Survivor Pro players -- the home team has won 10 games so far this season.

Ten games!

At this pace, the home team would be expected to win about 323 of 420 total MLS regular season matches, or 77 percent of the time. Yes, we're letting our math geek side show a bit too much with these calculations, but sometimes these numbers are worth pointing out -- especially if you're trying to win an XBox 360.

Skeptics will likely point out that it is much too early to determine how a single team, much less the entire league, is going to trend for the rest of the season. Skeptics may also say that home teams are supposed to win their first home game of the season (Kansas City is the only team to play more than one home match), a time when expectations are sky high and teams are playing before exuberant home crowds.

While those would be fair points, there's also one other rule of thumb to consider -- never bet against a hot hand. If the home teams are winning, you've got to stick with that trend until proven otherwise.

Picking the hot hand can be about as pleasant as this uncomfortable moment when the streak runs long and you've just got that feeling that's got to end at some point soon. Nobody wants to be the violinist on the Titanic and stay with ship until it sinks. But you've at least got to ride it out. You don't want to go against the trend and have your streak discontinued because you went with your gut and bucked the trend out of fear of losing.

With that said, let's take a look at this weekend's Best Bets and Top Choice.

Chicago Fire at San Jose Earthquakes (4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday): Consider this pick a Dark Horse. The Fire played real well at home last week against New England, they have a goalkeeper in Busch who looks like he's returned to his form from four years ago when he was at his best with the Columbus Crew and they have a player in Blanco who could wind up holding the MVP trophy at the end of the season. Despite all of these facts, there are two reasons why we'd go against them this week: the Quakes are the home team (did you not just read the previous 10 paragraphs?) and they are playing their first home game of the season. Oh, yeah ... and it's the first match in San Jose since the original Earthquakes moved out three years ago. This home crowd will be rockin'. Best Bet: San Jose

Houston Dynamo at Kansas City Wizards (8 p.m. ET, Saturday): The match will mark Kansas City's fourth straight home game to open the season and second within a four-day span. It's tough to pick a team that plays twice in a week, but seeing as Houston is also playing twice within four days and is coping with an injured goalkeeper and starting defender, this game seems like a pretty solid pick. The only way that the Wizards lose this one is significant others/family members are sick of having the players around the house and are making their lives miserable until they hit the road. Doubt it. Best Bet: Kansas City

Toronto FC at Los Angeles Galaxy (3 p.m. ET, Sunday): David Beckham scored and had an assist last week. Landon Donovan scored and had an assist last week. The Galaxy could have won 4-0 last week had Alan Gordon made a proper run to goal or learned how to finish. On the other hand, TFC has scored a total of one goal in two games and the team has yet to play at home this season. Toronto is desperate for a win, but its not going to get it this week. Top Choice: Los Angeles

Best of luck this week with your Survivor Pro picks. Be sure to check back next week for our Best Bets and Top Choice.

Survivor Pro: Expect the unexpected

2008-04-01T14:35:00Z

The first weekend of the MLS season is officially in the books and it's safe to say that it has not exactly turned out the way some may have expected. If you were fortunate enough to make it through the first five matches with one predicted victory intact for Survivor Pro, consider it an accomplishment. Here's what we saw in some of the First Kick matches:

Toronto fans came to play in Columbus. TFC did not. The Crew handled their opponents from north of the border in a 2-0 win. Toronto's offense generated a grand total of three shots on goal.

*Gulp*

OK, so we may have lead you astray on that one with our predictions from last week's column, but our other prediction had to be a virtual lock since it was against Real Salt Lake, right?

Not exactly.

Real Salt Lake and the Chicago Fire tied 1-1 at Rice-Eccles Stadium on Saturday. RSL's defense is either a bit stronger than people may have suspected or Chicago's offense is non-existant. Picking up from where he left off last year, Cuauhtemoc Blanco rescued Chicago in the 92nd minute to secure the draw but that was only their third shot on goal. Granted, it's not exactly time to give Real the MLS Cup seeing as their lone tally came from an own goal, but their defense is something to be aware of against weak offensive-minded teams.

So at this point, we're thinking, "Our picks can't all be bad, right?" Then we watched Colorado host Los Angeles and saw this result:

Rapids 4, Galaxy 0.

*Double gulp*

While this was not a match that we wanted to pick, we at least wanted to see how the Galaxy would get out of the box in their first match of the season since we did select them as our Top Choice against the San Jose Earthquakes on Thursday. While it's safe to say that we might like to change our pick, remember the rules: Measure twice. Cut once. There's no going back now.

Whether it's a matter of learning Ruud Gullit's Dutch version of the 4-3-3 or GM Alexi Lalas going out to find some players who can fit in with the superstars, we hope that it comes together before their home opener at the Home Depot Center on Thursday night against the Quakes. Yes, it's way to early to say where a team is going to finish in October, but a loss to San Jose could be a harbinger for The LA Riot Squad, The Ultimate Fan Organization and The Galaxians.

It's weekends like this where you need to take a deep breath and have a good laugh. (Yep, it's now stuck in our heads too.)

Since we've already taken L.A. over San Jose on Thursday and decided to avoid picking the Chicago-New England result, we'll look ahead to this weekend's matches and give you our Best Bets and Top Choice.

Columbus Crew at New York Red Bulls (7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday) -- Head coach Juan Carlos Osorio has said that help is on the way for the Red Bulls, which isn't exactly a good sign when the team has not even played it's first regular season match. Help? Already? Only a coach who sees a lack of depth or has players bit by the injury bug in preseason comes out and says, "Bring on the reinforcements!" at this point in the season. And while Columbus looked good against Toronto in its first match of the season, we're going to be contrarian based on the first weekend's results and we're a sucker for the home team. Best Bet: New York

Toronto FC at D.C. United (7:30 p.m. ET, Saturday) -- TFC supporters, meet arguably the best fans in MLS. Both teams lost in the opening weekend, but this is D.C.'s home opener and RFK Stadium is no longer home to the Washington Nationals. This has got to be a relief for the groundscrew. Barring an injuries in their Champions' Cup match Tuesday against Pachuca, D.C. should be ready to go against their Eastern Conference foe. Best Bet: D.C. United

Colorado has the reigning Player of the Week and a road match in Kansas City is not something that we want to touch. Real Salt Lake is on the road against Chivas USA and while we'd normally be quick to jump on the Goats, RSL's first match result makes us a bit hesistant, leaving us with ...

FC Dallas at Houston Dynamo (3 p.m. ET, Sunday) -- It's not always a good idea to pick a match that features rivals, much less those that are in-state. Wierd things tend to happen in rivalry games, but there's two reasons why we're not afraid to pick this match. First, the Hoops are banged up. Second, it's Houston's home opener and they are the two-time defending MLS Cup Champions. You don't think the Dynamo Girls are going to be fired up for this? Top Choice: Houston

Best of luck this week with your Survivor Pro picks. Be sure to check back next week for our Best Bets and Top Choice.

Survivor Pro: It's time to make your picks

2008-03-26T03:27:00Z

With less than a week remaining, everyone is starting to have First Kick jitters. Hope springs eternal for players, coaches, management and especially fans.

Real Salt Lake has the same exact record as two-time defending champions Houston Dynamo right now. D.C. United is in a seven-way tie for first place in the Eastern Conference. But once that first match is in the books, reality either sets in for some or expectations remain intact for what could be a legitimate run to MLS Cup.

That said, trying to pick a winner in the first week of the season for Survivor Pro is not going to be a walk in the park. You want to get off to a good start, but one should never underestimate the added adreneline produced when a supposed underdog plays its home opener before a big crowd.

Oh, by the way, Survivor Pro is not like Black Jack. A push (or tie, in this case) is definitely not a win. There's a little something extra to think about when making your selection.

Let's take a look at Week 1 of the MLS season to see if there are any match-ups that jump out as "best bets" and then we'll give you our Survivor Pro Top Choice.

Toronto at Columbus (Saturday, 4 p.m. ET) -- You might look at this match and think there's no way that you're touching it. We've got to figure that the first game at Crew Stadium will give the Crew a lift against a TFC team that did not appear to do much in the offseason outside of bumping Mo Johnston into the front office. Best Bet: Columbus

Chicago at Real Salt Lake (Saturday, 6 p.m. ET) -- Cuauhtemoc Blanco is starting his first full season with the Fire and if his 2007 half-season campaign is any indication, Blanco is a legitimate preseason pick for MVP. Yes, we tend to rail on RSL here ... but if the team has not done anything to change, why should we think results should change. The Fire are the only road team worth picking this week. Best Bet: Chicago

The three other Saturday contests (Houston at New England; D.C. at K.C.; L.A. at Colorado) are not worth taking a chance on. Chivas USA at FC Dallas on Sunday -- no chance we're touching that one. New England at Chicago (remember what happened the last time they faced each other?) on Thursday, April 3, is another game that is a tough pick, which leaves us with ...

San Jose at Los Angeles (April 3, 10:30 p.m. ET) -- Year Two of the Beckham Experiment continues with the return of the San Jose Earthquakes to MLS. This game is at The Home Depot Center and the Galaxy will have their full compliment of superstars against the expansion Quakes. While there are plenty of good players on San Jose, this is going to be the team's first regular-season game together. Having it happen against the Quakes' former arch-rivals makes this choice even easier. Top Choice: Los Angeles

There you go. You can either play along with our "expert" picks or feel free to venture out on your own. This early in the season, it's not a bad option to take a risk since you're starting in the same spot as everyone else.

Join today, have fun and check back each week as we break down upcoming games.

Good luck!

Survivor: It could happen to you

2007-09-27T12:55:00Z

Cocky. That's what we were. We committed the cardinal Survivor sin last week: Never pick a team that is playing in a rivalry match. So, in taking FC Dallas to win last week -- yep, you guessed it -- the "Survivor Experts" have now been eliminated from their own game.

But that's not going to stop us from advising you on some picks throughout the remainder of the regular season. It's the last week in September and the playoff races are at full boil. With that said, there are at least three matches this week that garner Survivor attention.

1. D.C. United vs. Toronto FC -- This game should be a total mismatch. After a slow start to the season, D.C. United have been rolling through opponents, both international and domestic. TFC, on the other hand, has the worst goal differential in the league (-20) and is currently at the bottom of the playoff table. There's only three reasons you would not pick D.C. United -- you've already used them, you're afraid of using a team that's played twice in the same week or you think Bobby Boswell's blog is taking away from his overall game. Pick: D.C. United.

2. New York Red Bulls vs. Real Salt Lake -- The reason for this pick is simple. The Red Bulls want to lock in a postseason berth in front of their home fans, while RSL is basically playing out the string. It's going to take more than a new GM to get RSL over the hump in this one. The thing we want to know is how is Alecko Eskandarian received in his home state of New Jersey. C'mon Esky, try to keep up with your good buddy Bobby in blog posts. Pick: New York Red Bulls.

3. Kansas City Wizards vs. Los Angeles Galaxy -- While some people may think New England at home vs. Colorado is a better match, we're going with this one based on what the Galaxy do not have vs. what the Wizards do have. Head coach Frank Yallop should consider putting together Galaxy version of "Sueno MLS" just to field a full roster of healthy players. While the Wizards are 3-5-2 in their last 10 matches, they should be able to take advantage of a short-handed Galaxy squad. Pick: Kansas City Wizards.

Since we're eliminated, we'll leave it up to you to decide the Pick of the Week.

(Pssst ... take D.C.!)

Survivor: No easy choices out there

2007-09-19T21:12:00Z

Yes, we realize that we slacked in getting a Survivor column posted last week. You probably won't believe it but we actually picked Kansas City to beat Columbus at Arrowhead Stadium (thank you very much, Eddie Johnson and Scott Sealy for allowing us to survive for another week with two strikes in extra time of their 3-2 win).

It's more than likely that you've chosen different teams in the first two weeks of survivor, so we'll outline our top picks for the week and then point out who we're going to go with based on the fact that Houston and Kansas City are no longer available to us after using those two teams in the first two weeks of Survivor.

Now, there are a grand total of eight MLS games this week. There is not an easy one in the bunch that one could say, "That team's a lock to win." So, let's give it our best guess on three matches.

The first is the Chicago Fire at FC Dallas on ESPN Thursday night. The Brimstone Cup opponents met in Chicago earlier this season with the Hoops taking a 2-1 victory. But this Fire team is different from the one that last faced FCD, having added internationals Cuauhtemoc Blanco and Paulo Wanchope since that match. Blanco has proven to be a force for the Fire, but the Hoops are looking to close in on a postseason berth with a victory and a combination of a Colorado Rapids loss and a Columbus loss or tie this weekend. Pick: FC Dallas

With the Wizards hitting the road to take on Chivas USA on Saturday night, this match-up of potential playoff teams would appear to be one that you'd want to avoid. But Chivas' home dominance is too much to avoid and the offense has been on a roll of late, scoring 11 goals over their last five matches at the Home Depot Center. Pick: Chivas USA

The final team worth opting for this weekend is D.C. United, who are playing the Fire in Bridgeview, Ill. D.C. United is the best team in the league and the Fire will be playing their second game within three days. While there might be a cause for concern that D.C. won't play hard after having already secured a postseason berth, it's not enough to scare us away from picking a rested D.C. team vs. a potentially tired Fire team. Pick: D.C. United

As for our pick this week, we've got to go with FC Dallas over Chicago. The Fire are a much improved team with Blanco, but the Hoops are going to take advantage of some home cooking and defeat Chicago.

Week 1: Dynamo is the way to go

2007-09-05T19:34:00Z

When it comes to playing Survivor, everyone is going to have his or her own personal strategy. Some people will say that you only pick home teams. Others will say that you never pick a team in a rivalry game no matter how well or poorly the two teams are playing at that moment.

As for SoccerFantasyPro.com Experts, we're all about picking the best team available. Don't mess around by avoiding Conference leaders, thinking that you can save them for next week. What happens when you don't make it to next week? What do you then, huh? Game over. You're done and lamenting the fact that you should have taken our advice and gone with a sure winner in the first week.

In Week 23 of the MLS season, there are three matches that say "Keep OUT!" The first is Thursday's ESPN2 match with D.C. United traveling to The Home Depot Center to take on Chivas USA. Granted, the Goats have lost four of their last five matches, but all four losses came at home. Also, it has been 10 days since Chivas last played and they should be plenty healthy to take on the Eastern Conference co-leaders.

The other two matches to avoid in terms of Survivor are New England at D.C. on Sunday and Chicago at Columbus on Saturday. New England is tied with D.C. for the Eastern Conference lead going into Thursday's match and there's not point in wasting your pick when two top teams go head to head -- unless you really like a challenge ... in which case we'd say you're crazy. As far the Fire and Crew are concerned, both teams are scratching and clawing for that final playoff spot in the East. Chicago's chances look dim, but does anyone actually think that Blanco -- especially the way that he has played since joining MLS -- is going to let his team roll over? No chance.

So, now that we've covered the matches to avoid, let's take a look at the matches that are most appealing:

Toronto at FC Dallas (Saturday) -- TFC has not seen a "W" since Fourth of July and only garnered one point in its last six league matches. FC Dallas, while getting spanked 4-0 by D.C. United at Pizza Hut Park last week, is coming off a U.S. Open Cup semifinal win on Tuesday and should be looking to gain a measure of revenge against Toronto for the 4-0 loss that they absorbed earlier in the season in Canada. Pick: FC Dallas

Real Salt Lake at Houston Dynamo (Saturday) -- Hmmm ... Is this match-up really that hard to explain? RSL, which is barely out of the Western cellar, vs. the Western Conference-leading Dynamo in Houston. Not that hard a choice here. Pick: Houston Dynamo

Colorado Rapids at L.A. Galaxy (Saturday) -- While this match may not jump out as a sure-fire game to pick, the Galaxy are certainly realing. From Alexi Lalas's comments about the league stacking the schedule against L.A. (c'mon Lex, it's a fair trade. Your team gets an uber-star in David Beckham and the rest of the league gets to share a bit in the glory by getting a home match against your Galaxy. Stop whining.) to Becks apparently being done for the year and requesting to be loaned back to the U.K., this team is just about ready to play out the string and call it a season. The Galaxy backline is pourous and while Colorado may not strike with the authority of D.C. United, they will be able to put the ball into the back of the net at some point on Saturday. Pick: Colorado.

New York Red Bulls at Chivas USA (Sunday) -- Two teams standing at 36 points collide in L.A. to close out the week. While Chivas will be hosting their second tough Eastern Conference opponent in a week, the team should be ready to face Juan Pablo Angel and the Red Bulls, who have not won a match on the road since July 8 (a span of matches). Plus, who ever feels great -- much less playing 90 minutes in the SoCal heat -- when making a cross-country flight? Pick: Chivas USA

Our pick: We've gotta go with Houston Dynamo. The only way you avoid this match-up is if you either think this is a proverbial "trap game" (one in which the dominant opponent overlooks the weaker one and ends up losing) or you want to "save" Houston.

Good luck!